URI economist says Rhode Island recovery moving forward, will take 2-3 years to return to “normal”

URI Professor of Economist, and a leading economist, Leonard Lardaro, uses his “Current Conditions Index” as a measurement of 12 economic indicators, measured month to month to predict Rhode Island’s economic trajectory.

In his most recent report, Lardaro says Rhode Island’s economic restoration continued into November with a Current Conditions Index of 83 – its eighth consecutive expansion value. As in previous months, Lardaro noted the overall CCI, which is predicated on year-over-year changes, is based on relatively easy “comps” when compared against the November 2020 CCI of 25.

Again the CCI saw 10 of 12 economic indicators, including Retail Sales, Total Manufacturing Hours, New Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Single-Unit Permits, show improvement relative to their position in November of last year.

Lardaro predicts continued strong CCI values for several more months, based on comparisons to where the economy stood in late 2020 and early 2021, but expects these numbers to come down as we move further into the year.

Despite this, Lardaro remains confident about the direction of the state economy and believes it will continue to move forward, though he expects it to take two to three years before it returns to “normal.”

The big question posed by Lardaro remains how Rhode Island will fare once federal stimulus runs out if the state does not move to correct structural deficiencies.

Here is his full report, which can be downloaded or enlarged for easier reading.