URI economist Lardaro fears Rhode Island entering a recession

Revised labor market data significantly impacted Rhode Island’s economic outlook says University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. While it is too early to reach a definitive conclusion, Lardaro believes the economy’s recent behavior in light of new data suggests Rhode Island has either entered the early stages of, or is moving toward, a recession.

Lardaro called the revisions both concerning and disappointing and says Rhode Island’s economy has performed badly since late summer, ending 2022 with a neutral value of 50 and moving into the contraction range with a Current Conditions Index value of 33 for January. Eight of 12 indicators worsened, including Single-Unit Permits, Total Manufacturing Hours, Employment Service Jobs, New Claims for Unemployment and, most notably, Retail Sales .

Leonard Lardaro is the creator and author of the Current Conditions Index and a URI Professor of Economics, and well known predictor of economic times and trends in Rhode Island.

Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. His blog – http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm includes historical data and additional information.

The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.