“Impeach!,” says the House of Representatives – the Senate will have their say in 2020.

As we approach the political year on a sour and divisive note, the vote in the Democrat controlled House of Representatives went late into the night – resulted in a 230-197 vote on Article 1 and a 229-198 vote on Article 2. No Republicans voted yes on either.

A rally held by President Trump in Michigan was held simultaneous with the House vote, as usual, with many thousands of people inside and outside the venue to hear the speech. “It’s funny, we don’t feel impeached,” the President said to resounding cheers.

More drama is unfolding as Nancy Pelosi indicated right after the vote that she has not seen fair rules for holding the trial in the Senate, so she will not transfer the articles of impeachment until she does. That could lead well into the new year.

Once in the Senate, the Senate conducts a trial, with guidelines of witness calling, etc. controlled by the senators, by majority vote. Presiding as judge will be Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr. If convicted on one count or two, the Constitution would then call for the president to be removed from office. 

The likelihood of the Senate voting yes on even one count is low.

The public is split nearly 50-50 on the issue. As the impeachment process deepened, the President’s approval rating has improved, with a backdrop of a trade deal coming as early as today; a stock market reaching new levels, meaning investors and individual’s 401Ks are rising at impressive rates; unemployment at record lows, including among women, youth, African-Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Asian Americans, and those without a high school diploma; the return of manufacturing jobs that were thought to be permanently gone; a surge in retail sales, indicating consumer confidence; and international successes, etc.

Fully expected to be denied by the Senate, the country will move on – its people will move on – but the toll on the country, on individuals, and on the political integrity and process of the country has been damaged, not only for this president in office, but for all following. Will impeachment threats now be one more tool to confront a president the House may not agree with?

How will it play out? Will we see repeated impeach movements happen at new indiscretion charges? One should not think that this effort to remove the President will end. We may think we’ve seen it all, but somehow it doesn’t ring true that way.

The country will now take a break for the holidays – celebrating Christmas, Hanukkah, other end of year holidays – and then New Year’s – and in early 2020 we will be back to the familiar long hours of testimony on Impeachment – now before the Republican controlled Senate. It does not seem as though Nancy Pelosi will release the articles of impeachment if the intent of the Senate is to call to order, call to dismiss, and end it all. Expect Pelosi to exert as much control over the next step as possible.

While impeachment has been talked about – the result of a positive vote by the Senate would mean removal of the President from office. Vice President Pence would then step up.  If unable or unwilling to serve, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would become president of the United States.